Probability-weighted branching outcomes of major geopolitical events. Click any scenario to see the full decision tree — winners, losers, and signals at every branch.
Ongoing · Technology / Energy
Ongoing · Maritime / Trade
Ongoing · Military / Geopolitical
Ongoing · Credit / Real Estate
Recurring · Climate / Commodities
Watching · Monetary Policy
Watching · Energy / Geopolitical
Watching · Energy / Geopolitical
Watching · Military / Geopolitical
Watching · Sovereign / Credit
Watching · Cyber / Infrastructure
Watching · Sovereign / Trade
Low-probability, high-impact outcomes outside the modeled partition above. Surfaced for analytical hygiene — never ranked, never assigned a probability. Each card describes the trigger mechanism and the names that move if it actually happens.
Mechanism: Routing collapse and brief loss of intercontinental financial-messaging and cloud-control-plane connectivity, before traffic re-routes through degraded paths over days to weeks.
A near-simultaneous loss of multiple major transoceanic cables — Atlantic and Pacific — within a 48-hour window. Cause is plausible but not yet observed at this scale: state-actor sabotage, a fishing-vessel anchor cascade, or a Mediterranean / Red Sea chokepoint event that propagates. The economy assumes 95%+ of intercontinental data moves over these cables; the satellite uplink fleet cannot absorb that volume.
Methodology. Each scenario branches into conditional paths (Y) and sub-outcomes (Z). Percentages shown on paths are joint probabilities — the overall likelihood of that full chain occurring. These are analytical frames, not forecasts.
AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.
Contingency note — Watch the SubmarineCableMap incident feed and the Lloyd's List anchor-drop chronology. The hedge isn't a single ticker — it's a pair trade between satellite-comms exposure and hyperscaler cloud beta.
Mechanism: Multi-quarter West-Coast supply-chain disruption (Boeing 737 line, Port of Seattle/Tacoma, Microsoft / Amazon HQ regions); flood of insurance/reinsurance claims; emergency rebuilding spend; durable shift of cloud workloads to non-PNW regions.
A magnitude 8.7+ event on the Cascadia fault, the long-overdue Pacific-Northwest analogue to the 1700 Vancouver Island earthquake. USGS one-in-300-year base rate places this materially above background; tsunami modelling suggests a 30-minute warning window for Portland/Seattle/Vancouver. Tech-corridor real estate, Boeing manufacturing, and West-Coast ports take simultaneous hits.
Contingency note — A long-tail position via reinsurance equity beta or via municipal-bond CDS on Oregon / Washington local issuers. The asymmetric play is at the reinsurance pricing turn, not the disaster spot.
Mechanism: EM hard-currency bond ETFs take an acute mark-to-zero on the affected issuer; spillover widens the EM credit-default-swap basket; a flight to USD safe assets; contagion math is the open question and the reason this is a black swan — neither a soft nor a hard restructuring fits the historical analogues cleanly.
A single large emerging-market economy — Turkey, Argentina, Egypt, or Pakistan — announces full unilateral repudiation of external sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt, framed as a sovereignty-restoration act, with diplomatic backing from a regional bloc (BRICS / Gulf states / others). Distinct from the existing partition because OpenWatch's current sovereign-default reference classes assume a managed restructuring, not a Soviet-style jubilee.
Contingency note — Watch the CDS-basket spread, the IMF Article IV calendar, and the BRICS-summit communiqué cycle. The hard-to-reverse part — once one country tests this and the diplomatic backing holds, the reference class for the next sovereign default has fundamentally changed.
Tail contingency — deliberately no probability assigned. Outside the modeled scenario partition. Surfaced for analytical hygiene, not for ranking. AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.