IMF-led containment

Z outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• Argentina-class managed restructuring

  A familiar IMF / Paris Club / bondholder triangle resolves the situation over 18-24 months; haircuts in the 30-45% range; affected sovereign re-accesses markets at distressed yields.

  Trade lens —EMB catches a relief rally as restructuring terms clarify; Citi (C) EM lending-book impairment crystallises; Argentina-class precedent supports peer-EM spreads.

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  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.60%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  no signals (7d)Explore →
• Pre-emptive IMF programme avoids default

  Stress signals trigger an Extended Fund Facility before formal default; sovereign avoids the L-word; spreads widen and recover quickly as the safety net engages.

  Trade lens —EEM and BRL bid as backstop credibility holds; EMB peer-spread compression; TLT safe-haven bid fades quickly.

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  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →
• Protracted negotiation with creditors

  Bilateral creditors (China, Gulf states) and bondholders take 24-36 months to align on burden-sharing; recovery values uncertain; the next sovereign in line tests markets while talks drag.

  Trade lens —GLD holds sovereign-trust bid; EMB frontier segment trades at distressed levels longer; Zambia-class debt-treatment uncertainty hangs over peer frontier credit.

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  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly