Protracted negotiation with creditors

Bilateral creditors (China, Gulf states) and bondholders take 24-36 months to align on burden-sharing; recovery values uncertain; the next sovereign in line tests markets while talks drag.

Trade lens —GLD holds sovereign-trust bid; EMB frontier segment trades at distressed levels longer; Zambia-class debt-treatment uncertainty hangs over peer frontier credit. · meaningful · slow

Policy lens —China and GCC bilateral creditors refuse to accept Paris Club comparability-of-treatment requirements, blocking an IMF programme; the G20 Common Framework working group convenes emergency talks; the World Bank suspends new disbursements pending creditor-alignment confirmation.

Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.