AI-matched wagers mapped to OpenWatch scenarios
Prediction markets are exchanges where traders bet real money on future outcomes. OpenWatch maps the geopolitical scenarios it tracks to live markets on Polymarket and Manifold, so you can see what the crowd is pricing.
A Claude model reads each scenario branch and each available market question, then scores their relevance. Only markets scoring โฅ60/100 are shown. The probability displayed is the market's current YES price โ not OpenWatch's forecast.
Prediction markets are speculative and can lose value. OpenWatch surfaces these for informational purposes only โ we are not a broker, advisor, or market participant. Verify the question and terms on the provider's site before placing any bet.
Whether Fed implements rate cuts in 2026. A pause scenario implies minimal or zero cuts, making this a core resolution metric for fed-policy-reversal conditions.
US recession occurrence by end of 2026 using official GDP and NBER criteria, core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.
US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.
Timing of AI bubble pop, core trigger for capex-cycle overshooting and subsequent crash in AI infrastructure.
Nvidia's market dominance in AI accelerators. Market share >80% in H2 2026 would confirm deepening monopoly in GPU/AI chip infrastructure.
Timing of next US recession, a core confirmatory signal for deep-recession branch triggered by fed-policy reversal.
Timing of next US recession, core trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario and recession-driven-cuts branch.
Houthi attacks in Red Sea, the core confirmatory signal for prolonged-attrition-conflict in Red Sea-Suez scenario.
Tanker destruction in Strait of Hormuz, core trigger for tanker-incident corridor stress scenario.
Directly asks about stagflation occurrence, core concept of the branch scenario. Resolves on combined inflation and unemployment conditions before 2026 midterms.
Stagflation scenario. Market resolves on whether US experiences stagflation before end of 2026, matching the cascade branch's stagflation-trap scenario and fed-policy-reversal confirmatory signals.
AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.
Frontier model training compute scale (2e27 FLOP threshold), core indicator of AI infrastructure race progress and GPU/compute deployment.
USMCA renegotiation or replacement with bilateral US-Mexico treaty in 2026, core trigger for sustained bilateral friction scenario.
Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.
Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.
Net Fed rate cuts in 2026, core trigger of orderly-cut-cycle scenario. Captures monetary policy reversal through quantified rate-cut outcomes.
Strait of Hormuz closure announcement, a primary confirmatory signal for elevated risk premium in middle-east-oil-corridor scenario.
A CFTC-regulated decentralized prediction market on Polygon. Denominated in USDC. One of the highest-volume geopolitical prediction markets available.
polymarket.com โA play-money prediction market platform with a large catalog of geopolitical, science, and current events markets. Free to use โ great for exploring without capital at risk.
manifold.markets โA CFTC-regulated prediction market focused on US politics. Read-only public API with markets updated every minute. Great for political forecasting.
predictit.org โ