How the scenarios are authored

The cascade tree is a structured set of authored AI hypotheses about how a triggering event could play out. Each scenario (X) branches into a small number of conditional paths (Y), and each Y can branch again into more specific outcomes (Z).

X is the trigger. Y is "given X, then what?". Z is "given X and Y, then what?". The siblings at each level are intended as an exhaustive partition of the conditional space, summing to 100%.

These shapes are possibilities, not predictions. We're sketching, watching, holding our priors lightly. The platform claims possibility — not prediction.

These are hypotheses, not predictions. The cascade is a framework for thinking about asymmetric exposure across paths — not a ranked forecast feed.

Every probability you see is authored as an honest base-rate-anchored estimate, not a market-calibrated forecast. The AI consults available evidence — historical base rates, public commentary, OSINT signal patterns — and writes a number it can defend.

All probabilities are multiples of 5%. We never author 22% or 47%. The underlying authoring is not precise enough to justify finer units, and a 5% grid keeps siblings legible (they sum to 100%) and forces honesty about uncertainty.

Probabilities are re-elicited per horizon when the underlying picture shifts. A scenario that read 65% in March might read 50% by May if events undercut its premise. We do not silently update prior estimates — we re-author and refresh the information-cutoff date.

Each branch carries a small set of confirmatorySignalTerms — phrases that, if they show up in recent news, would corroborate the branch. The badge counts how many articles in the last 7 days mention those terms.

Signal counts are not probability shifts. A high count means people are talking about this path right now; it does not mean the path is more likely to materialise. Volume-driven probability mutation was rejected unanimously by the review council (PR #134) — media events get amplified by attention, not by underlying base rates.

The signal numbers are a corroboration trail, not a forecast. Use them to ask "does the public information line up with this hypothesis?", not "should I bet on this branch?".

On Y-branch detail pages, the "Cost of inaction" panel shows AI-hypothesis estimates of how named markets, tickers, or sectors might move IF the branch materialises. Every estimate carries a confidence tag — almost all are tagged low. We surface the tag prominently so readers anchor on the epistemic state, not on the number.

These are not forecasts. They are conditional illustrative estimates — useful for asking "what's my exposure if this path plays out?", not for trade sizing. Magnitudes assume the branch materialises exactly as described; actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.

Where confidence is low, the magnitude is muted in the UI so the eye lands on the label, not the number. Where confidence is high, the magnitude is emphasised — but high confidence is rare in practice.

Wildcards are events that the X→Y→Z partition does not capture — outside-the-tree contingencies that could materially shift the picture. They are authored as paired "what if positive" / "what if negative" outcomes to capture asymmetric tail behaviour.

Wildcards deliberately carry no probability. Assigning a number to an off-tree event would overclaim — we would be saying we know how to compare a wildcard's likelihood to the on-tree partition, and we don't.

The only directional cue is a small lean indicator on the side we think is currently more likely to surface. The lean is editorial, not numerical.

GDELT / English-media bias. Our signal counts pull from GDELT and similar English-leaning OSINT feeds. Events that the English-language press underweights — domestic-only stories in non-English markets, lightly-covered regional dynamics — will look quiet here even when they are not.

Low-corroboration risk. A branch can be plausible with very few news mentions — and a branch with many mentions can still be wrong. The signal badge is a media-volume measurement, not a truth measurement.

Sanctioned-country handling. Any country under active comprehensive sanctions surfaces only as news / threat / exposure on this platform — never as an opportunity, posture, or actionable trade. This is a legal rule, not a default.

Information cutoff. Each cascade page shows the date of its latest re-authoring at the bottom. Probabilities and named winners/losers are valid as of that date; events since then have not been folded in.

No market-calibrated mispricing. We do not claim that any probability on this page differs meaningfully from a price implied by options, prediction markets, or other tradable instruments. Our numbers are authored estimates, not arbitrage signals.

No forecast accuracy track record. We do not yet publish a back-tested or live-tracked accuracy log for these scenarios. When we have one, it will live here and be visible from every cascade page.

No investment advice. Nothing on the cascade pages is advice. The scenarios are an analytical frame to help you think about exposure; sizing and execution are your call, with a qualified advisor.