Watch the world. Follow the money.

See where markets disagree →Our track record
Our forecasts are publicly scored. 5 resolved so far (too few for a reliable Brier score yet) — misses included.See the record →

We watch 1,000+ sources, show where they agree, and grade our own forecasts in public.

Markets vs. the newsWhat Congress is tradingOur forecast record
CRITICALGlobal food crisis hits 30+ countries at Phase 3+ IPC levels while US-Iran military escalation and Nigeria political instability create compounding commodity and currency pressures.LIVE · 8d agoRead full brief →
West Africa (Nigeria, Niger, Sahel)criticalPersian Gulf / Strait of HormuzcriticalEast Africa (Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia)critical
Congress WatchAll disclosures →
David H McCormickBuy$100K–$250KJul 21, 26
David H McCormickBuy$500K–$1.0MJul 22, 26
David H McCormickBuy$500K–$1.0MJul 14, 26
David H McCormickBuy$250K–$500KJul 8, 26
David H McCormickBuy$250K–$500KJul 8, 26

How OpenWatch works

We aggregate 1,000+ open sources into signals, surface where independent signals agree, and compare prediction-market prices against that read. Every forecast we commit to is hash-chained and published — including the ones we get wrong. See our methodology or the full track record.

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