Every forecast we made, scored against what actually happened once the market resolved. Misses included — nothing here is hidden or smoothed over.
Brier 0.197 across 34 resolved calls — misses included.
Vs. naive baseline
Positive skill means the forecasts beat simply guessing the overall resolution rate every time. Negative means they didn't — shown either way.
By forecast horizon
| Horizon | Resolved | Brier | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unknown horizon | 34 | 0.197 | 65% |
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. We do not recommend any position. All trading decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
Brier score: 0 is a perfect forecast, 1 is the worst possible. Lower is better. A forecast is only graded once its underlying market has resolved, and only if the forecast was made strictly before that resolution (no look-ahead). Past accuracy does not predict future accuracy.