ELEVATED IMPACT[40% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→IMF-led containment [50%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[60% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Argentina-class managed restructuring
A familiar IMF / Paris Club / bondholder triangle resolves the situation over 18-24 months; haircuts in the 30-45% range; affected sovereign re-accesses markets at distressed yields.
Trade lens —EMB catches a relief rally as restructuring terms clarify; Citi (C) EM lending-book impairment crystallises; Argentina-class precedent supports peer-EM spreads. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —The IMF, Paris Club, and bondholder committee reach a tripartite memorandum of understanding on haircut percentages; the sovereign re-enters capital markets under IMF programme monitoring; the OECD sovereign-lending principles group opens a review of bilateral-creditor burden-sharing adequacy.
⚡ 1170 supporting signals (7d)↓338 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
40%
Emerging-Market Sovereign
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
IMF-led containment
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.