Kinetic incident at DMZ or naval

Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• Rapid de-escalation within weeks

  Back-channel communication and third-party mediation produce a halt to hostilities within 2-3 weeks; markets recover most of the initial drawdown; defense premium fades over 6 months.

  Trade lens —EWY snaps back from incident lows; KRW stabilises; LMT defense premium fades from peak; KOSPI catches a relief rally.

  →
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.45%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.55%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →
• Extended military standoff

  Active hostilities cease but heightened military readiness persists for 6-12 months; supply chains for tech components reroute defensively; KOSPI trades 15-20% below pre-incident levels for the duration.

  Trade lens —Samsung (005930.KS) multiple compresses; KOSPI 15-20% below pre-incident for the duration; AMAT and Vietnam memory FDI capture diversion premium.

  →
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.45%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.35%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.<5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →
• Risk of broader conflict materialises

  Initial clash escalates into a larger exchange; air strikes or special-forces operations follow; financial markets enter sustained risk-off mode for months; oil and gold rally on regional contagion fear.

  Trade lens —GLD bid hard on regional-war risk; LMT captures multi-quarter restocking; EWY and Samsung (005930.KS) priced into existential operational-continuity risk.

  →
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.45%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.10%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.<5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly