ELEVATED IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Kinetic incident at DMZ or naval [15%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[10% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Risk of broader conflict materialises
Initial clash escalates into a larger exchange; air strikes or special-forces operations follow; financial markets enter sustained risk-off mode for months; oil and gold rally on regional contagion fear.
Trade lens —GLD bid hard on regional-war risk; LMT captures multi-quarter restocking; EWY priced into existential operational-continuity risk. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Washington convenes NATO partner consultations under Article 4 and invokes the 1954 US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty; the UN Security Council holds daily emergency sessions as P5 alignment breaks along US/allied versus China/Russia lines; Seoul declares a national mobilisation and requests emergency allied logistics support.
⚡ 310 supporting signals (7d)↓139 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
Korean Peninsula
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~5%
Kinetic incident
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.