Risk intelligence for Japan
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China commences military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Direct resolution trigger for partial-thaw scenario involving US-China tensions and Taiwan conflict escalation.
JP signals are stable with no significant trend. 658 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.
Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing — no material divergence detected.
IMF WEO + World Bank data · Annual/quarterly release cadence · Not real-time crisis indicators · Updated Jun 2026
North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates sustained provocation cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
Brent crude above $100/barrel reflects the risk-premium embedded in oil prices due to Persian Gulf shipping disruptions and war-risk concerns.
China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.
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