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US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement, the canonical trigger for recession-driven Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.
US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025–Q4 2026 directly measures the recession trigger underlying mild-recession-recovery scenario.
North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates sustained provocation cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.
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No active themes in global financials. 3 routine OFAC updates this week. EM central bank pivot signals are tracked under the Turkey and EM opportunity themes.