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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 defines recession; directly maps to the deep-recession branch trigger via BEA or NBER confirmation.
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Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.
Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.
Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.
Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.
Red Sea shipping disruption is expanding to Indian Ocean lanes, driving energy shipping cost premiums of 18–24%. OPEC+ unilateral cut signals from 3 members are raising supply uncertainty. Energy assets are partially but not fully pricing the disruption risk.
Simultaneous supply disruptions in Chile (license backlog clearing), DRC (cobalt export signals), and Australia (port labor signals) are forming a lithium supply squeeze. EV demand signals remain unaffected. Lithium producers priced at prior-risk levels create a meaningful entry opportunity.