Risk intelligence for China
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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 defines recession; directly maps to the deep-recession branch trigger via BEA or NBER confirmation.
China signals are stable with no significant trend. 1212 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.
Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing β no material divergence detected.
China is the world's largest copper consumer (55% of global demand). Copper price signals China industrial activity.
IMF WEO + World Bank data Β· Annual/quarterly release cadence Β· Not real-time crisis indicators Β· Updated Jun 2026
Sanctioned entity: ABDUL HAQ. Aliases: Maimaitiming Maimaiti, Abdul Heq, Abudu Hake, Abdul Heq Jundullah, 'Abd Al-Haq, Memetiming Memeti, Memetiming Aximu, Memetiming Qekeman. Program: Al-Qaida.
Red earthquake (Magnitude 6.3M, Depth:10km) in China 16/06/2026 09:06 UTC, 9 thousand (in MMI>=VII).. On 6/16/2026 9:06:55 AM, an earthquake occurred in China potentially affecting 9 thousand (in MMI>=VII). The earthquake had Magnitude 6.3M, Depth:10km.
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US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement, the canonical trigger for recession-driven Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.
Fed policy reversal triggers rate cuts at FOMC meetings. July 2026 rate-cut decision directly reflects whether Fed pivoted from hiking stance to accommodative stance in response to sticky inflation.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals β not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. We do not recommend any position. All wager decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.