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AI industry downturn via three-event threshold including NVIDIA revenue decline, data center capex slowdown, and GPU price collapse—core triggers of capex-cycle overshoot and crash.
North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates sustained provocation cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
NATO Article 5 invocation is the explicit trigger for kinetic retaliation cycle following state-sponsored cyber attack on critical infrastructure. Market directly measures the defined escalation threshold.
Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.
China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.
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AI infrastructure buildout is driving sustained capex cycles across cloud, data centres and enterprise software. Geopolitical reshoring of semiconductor supply chains (CHIPS Act, EU Chips Act) is accelerating domestic tech investment. Market valuations remain elevated but earnings revisions are positive across hyperscalers.