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Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.
Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.
Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery by August extends the measurement window for the same core trigger: tanker passage resumption following Iranian closure threat.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez escalation scenario. Houthi disruptions and Iranian retaliation would suppress transit; return to normal signals de-escalation.
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Consumer signals are mixed globally. US consumer remains resilient at the high end but shows stress in lower income cohorts (credit card delinquency signals rising). EM consumer recovery is uneven — India strong, China weak. Luxury goods facing headwinds from Chinese slowdown. Staples defensively attractive but limited upside.