Military pressure campaign

Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• Accidental hot incident

  Miscalculation during exercises leads to exchange of fire; US destroyer and PLA frigate damaged; markets enter crisis mode.

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  Policy lens —Washington invokes War Powers notification to Congress and activates the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty; allied capitals freeze Chinese sovereign assets and coordinate SWIFT restriction packages within 48 hours.

  Trade lens —TSM gaps down hard; defense primes (LMT) bid on emergency Pacific procurement; AAPL repriced on iPhone supply-chain freeze; Treasuries strongly bid. · structural · slow

  25%~5% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)↓44 vs prior 7dExplore →
• G7-mediated stand-down

  International pressure and back-channel diplomacy produce a ceasefire of exercises; PLA pulls back; semiconductor supply restabilizes after 6-week disruption.

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  Policy lens —G7 foreign ministers issue a joint de-escalation statement; Washington and Beijing restore military-to-military hotline access; export-control rollback negotiations open as a confidence-building measure.

  Trade lens —TSM and NVDA snap back as risk premium unwinds; defense names give back gains; Taiwan ETF (EWT) catches the rerating. · meaningful · fast

  45%~10% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.45%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  no signals (7d)Explore →
• Extended stalemate (3-6 months)

  Exercises continue at lower intensity; no resolution; semi-permanent elevated military presence on both sides; global supply chains restructure defensively.

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  Policy lens —Allied capitals impose coordinated investment screening on Chinese semiconductor acquisitions; the Quad formalises a technology-security working group; India and Vietnam conclude bilateral supply-chain resilience frameworks with Washington.

  Trade lens —TSM carries a persistent risk discount; equipment names (AMAT, KLAC) bid on ex-China capex pivot; INR and VND beta lift on production-relocation flows. · structural · slow

  30%~10% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.30%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  ⚡ 5123 supporting signals (7d)↑5123 vs prior 7dExplore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly