HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Military pressure campaign [40%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[45% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
G7-mediated stand-down
International pressure and back-channel diplomacy produce a ceasefire of exercises; PLA pulls back; semiconductor supply restabilizes after 6-week disruption.
Trade lens —TSM and NVDA snap back as risk premium unwinds; defense names give back gains; Taiwan ETF (EWT) catches the rerating. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —G7 foreign ministers issue a joint de-escalation statement; Washington and Beijing restore military-to-military hotline access; export-control rollback negotiations open as a confidence-building measure.
⚡ 5126 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
65%
Taiwan Strait
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Military pressure
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.