HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Military pressure campaign [40%]→[30% path]
Extended stalemate (3-6 months)
Exercises continue at lower intensity; no resolution; semi-permanent elevated military presence on both sides; global supply chains restructure defensively.
⚡ 1134 supporting signals (7d)↑1134 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.