Risk intelligence for India
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CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration consistent with fed-policy reversal from disinflationary stance.
Signal activity in India has surged 125% over the past 7 days (4271 events monitored). Markets continue to price stability conditions that are not supported by current OSINT signal levels. This divergence represents downside exposure that has not been fully priced.
Escalating signals have not yet been fully priced into market risk premiums — this country carries more risk than current pricing implies.
2 companies not shown — bearish sector posture
India imports 85% of its oil needs. Lower crude prices reduce current account deficit and support INR.
IMF WEO + World Bank data · Annual/quarterly release cadence · Not real-time crisis indicators · Updated Jun 2026
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2 additional companies suppressed — their industry is currently REDUCE/AVOID/EXIT. Why?
Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 defines recession; directly maps to the deep-recession branch trigger via BEA or NBER confirmation.
US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement, the canonical trigger for recession-driven Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. We do not recommend any position. All wager decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.