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Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.
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Federal Reserve will execute 12 or more 25bp rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring an aggressive easing cycle consistent with orderly-cut policy reversal from tightening.
Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession announcement directly defines the recession trigger condition for the deep-recession branch.
US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.
US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.
US recession by end of 2026 directly captures the recessionary leg of stagflation; resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, core output metric for fed-policy-reversal scenario.
Red Sea shipping disruption is expanding to Indian Ocean lanes, driving energy shipping cost premiums of 18–24%. OPEC+ unilateral cut signals from 3 members are raising supply uncertainty. Energy assets are partially but not fully pricing the disruption risk.
Black Sea grain corridor incidents are accelerating (3 this week). El Niño drought signals are building across SE Asia — palm oil supply chain at risk. Agricultural commodity markets are not pricing the full disruption implied by current signal intensity.