Risk intelligence for South Africa
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Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.
South Africa signals are stable with no significant trend. 753 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.
Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing — no material divergence detected.
South Africa is the world's 8th largest gold producer. Precious metals are central to ZAR strength.
IMF WEO + World Bank data · Annual/quarterly release cadence · Not real-time crisis indicators · Updated Jun 2026
Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.
Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez escalation scenario. Houthi disruptions and Iranian retaliation would suppress transit; return to normal signals de-escalation.
Iranian blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz for >48 hours is a direct retaliation measure that materializes the scenario's core mechanism—disruption of oil flows and regional escalation through control of critica
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