A combination of fiscal-deficit widening, Pemex contingent-liability stress, and bilateral friction triggers a Moody's or Fitch downgrade; Mexico loses one rung; sovereign and corporate spreads widen; ETF outflows accelerate.
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.
▲ Missed gains if not positioned
▼ Realized losses if not hedged
Magnitudes assume the branch materialises as described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.
Z-level sub-scenarios coming soon
Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly