Core inflation re-accelerates above 3.5%; Fed pauses or reverses; long bond yields spike above 5.5%; rate-sensitive sectors reprice.
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.
▲ Missed gains if not positioned
▼ Realized losses if not hedged
Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.
Policy lens —FOMC pauses the cut cycle and resumes hawkish forward guidance; the White House activates the SPR and pursues emergency diplomatic outreach on energy costs; Congress debates a broad fiscal-restraint package to assist monetary policy.
Trade lens —Long-end Treasuries (TLT) sell off as yields reprice; energy (XOM) and gold-miner (NEM) outperform; homebuilder demand and EM take the brunt. · meaningful · fast
Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring
If this path occurs — possible outcomes
Outcome % = conditional on this path occurring · Path % = joint probability of this exact chain from today
Policy lens —FOMC reverses to a tightening bias and resumes hiking; Treasury issues a revised long-run debt-sustainability statement; the Bank of England and ECB face similar re-hiking pressure, triggering a G7 coordinated monetary-policy communiqué.
Trade lens —TLT sells off; JPM NIM widens further; XOM benefits from higher-for-longer; homebuilders and EM take the hit. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —FOMC adopts a restrictive policy rate well above the neutral estimate; the NLRB faces Republican pressure to limit multi-year union contracts; the G7 issues a joint statement on wage-price spiral risk and coordinated monetary restraint.
Trade lens —GS rate-vol desk benefits; NEM at $2,800+ gold; MSFT and long-duration equities compress as discount rates rise; BoJ-policy stress lifts JGB vol. · structural · slow
Policy lens —The White House convenes a National Security Council energy-security session and activates SPR releases; USDA issues emergency export controls on selected agricultural commodities; IEA coordinates a joint release of strategic petroleum reserves among member states.
Trade lens —XOM and Cheniere (LNG) gap higher; airlines (DAL) take the fuel-cost mark; INR import-bill and Egyptian pound deteriorate. · meaningful · fast
Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly