MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Inflation resurgence [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[50% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Sticky inflation forces pivot back
Fed pauses cuts and resumes hiking; bond vigilantes push 10-year above 5.5%; rate-sensitive equities re-rate sharply lower.
Trade lens —TLT sells off; JPM NIM widens further; XOM benefits from higher-for-longer; homebuilders and EM take the hit. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —FOMC reverses to a tightening bias and resumes hiking; Treasury issues a revised long-run debt-sustainability statement; the Bank of England and ECB face similar re-hiking pressure, triggering a G7 coordinated monetary-policy communiqué.
⚡ 228 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Inflation resurgence
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.