MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Inflation resurgence [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[20% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
New commodity shock reignites prices
Supply disruption in oil, food, or metals drives a fresh price spike layered on top of existing core inflation; Fed has no good options.
Trade lens —XOM and Cheniere (LNG) gap higher; airlines (DAL) take the fuel-cost mark; INR import-bill and Egyptian pound deteriorate. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —The White House convenes a National Security Council energy-security session and activates SPR releases; USDA issues emergency export controls on selected agricultural commodities; IEA coordinates a joint release of strategic petroleum reserves among member states.
⚡ 349 supporting signals (7d)↑349 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Inflation resurgence
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.