Orderly rate cut cycle

Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• Soft landing confirmed

  Unemployment plateaus at 4.2%; GDP prints 2%+; risk assets rally 15-20% as rate-cut cycle confirmed; PE multiples expand.

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  Policy lens —FOMC delivers a 'soft-landing confirmed' statement and publishes forward guidance flagging 2-3 additional cuts; Treasury Department issues a debt-buyback programme to lock in lower long-end rates; G20 finance ministers endorse coordinated growth-supportive fiscal postures.

  Trade lens —DHI mortgage-rate beta bid; MSFT and tech-megacap multiples expand; BRK.B cash float compresses; INR and Sensex catch the EM-inflow rerating. · meaningful · fast

  50%~15% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.55%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~15%
  ⚡ 145 supporting signals (7d)↑145 vs prior 7dExplore →
• Cuts pause at 2 — wait and see

  Fed executes only 2 cuts before pausing; mixed signals on inflation; markets oscillate; soft landing narrative not fully confirmed.

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  Policy lens —FOMC pauses at 2 cuts and adopts a 'data-dependent hold' statement; Chair Powell testifies to Congress on persistent inflation risks; the Senate Banking Committee opens oversight hearings on the pace of rate normalisation.

  Trade lens —JPM NIM stays elevated; GLD bid on rate uncertainty; DHI and growth names left wanting on partial-cut disappointment; BRL softens at the margin. · small move · fast

  30%~10% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.55%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.30%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  ⚡ 317 supporting signals (7d)↑317 vs prior 7dExplore →
• Yield curve steepens sharply

  Front-end rates fall as Fed cuts but long end stays elevated on fiscal concerns; 2s10s spread widens 100bps+; PE buyout activity surges.

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  Policy lens —Treasury shifts auction composition toward shorter maturities to contain long-end pressure; BoJ faces parliamentary scrutiny over YCC exit timing as JGB-US yield differentials compress; IMF warns G7 finance ministers of fiscal-dominance risks.

  Trade lens —BAC rally on steeper curve; TLT and JGB-linked names sell off; PE deal-financing (KKR) economics improve sharply. · meaningful · fast

  20%~5% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.55%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.20%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)↓104 vs prior 7dExplore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly