MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Orderly rate cut cycle [50%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[20% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Yield curve steepens sharply
Front-end rates fall as Fed cuts but long end stays elevated on fiscal concerns; 2s10s spread widens 100bps+; PE buyout activity surges.
Trade lens —BAC rally on steeper curve; TLT and JGB-linked names sell off; PE deal-financing (KKR) economics improve sharply. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —Treasury shifts auction composition toward shorter maturities to contain long-end pressure; BoJ faces parliamentary scrutiny over YCC exit timing as JGB-US yield differentials compress; IMF warns G7 finance ministers of fiscal-dominance risks.
⚡ 137 supporting signals (7d)↑137 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
Orderly rate
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.