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US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.
Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession announcement directly defines the recession trigger condition for the deep-recession branch.
Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.
Explicitly addresses stagflation before end of 2026, matching the exact scenario name and all confirmatory signal terms: stagflation, inflation, recession, and unemployment dynamics.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
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Freeport is the largest publicly traded copper producer with low-cost Indonesian and Americas portfolio. Copper supply-demand structural deficit is widening with grid electrification, AI data center build-out, and EV adoption. Grasberg underground is fully ramped. Leach technology projects add zero-capex copper pounds. Best pure-play copper exposure.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is headquartered in United States, which is currently showing moderate signals.
🇺🇸United States48EARLYView United States risk detail →⛏Mining0WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALE | Vale S.A. | 50 | -8% | ↓0% | AVOID |
| AG | First Majestic Silver Corp. | 50 | +13% | ↓0% | EARLY |
| TECK | Teck Resources Limited | 50 | +19% | ↓0% | EARLY |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | 50 | +18% | ↓0% | EARLY |
| FM | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. | 50 | -7% | ↓0% | AVOID |
| IVN | Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. | 50 | +17% | ↓0% | EARLY |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | 50 | +11% | ↓0% | EARLY |
Investors who hold FCX may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Copper price hits $5/lb on TC/RC collapse
Indonesia smelter complete, exports normalized
AI data center electrification fuels copper demand forecasts
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Apr 15, 26 | +11.9% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Sep 24, 24 | +35.1% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jul 19, 24 | +54.3% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 18, 24 | +32.7% |