ELEVATED IMPACT[40% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Global risk-off into DM credit[15% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Global risk-off into DM credit
Contagion bleeds beyond EM; investment-grade and high-yield spreads in developed markets widen 75-100 bps; financial conditions tighten globally; central banks weigh emergency liquidity measures.
no signals (7d)↓139 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
ScenarioAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.40%×BranchConditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%=PathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.
▲ Missed gains if not positioned
medium confidence📈$TLT+15%in 6mo
medium confidence📈$GLD+20%in 1yr
▼ Realized losses if not hedged
medium confidence📈$HYG−15%in 6mo
medium confidence🏷financials−15%in 6mo
Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.
View as
Policy lens —The FSOC convenes an emergency systemic-risk meeting and activates the Exchange Stabilization Fund; the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England issue a coordinated statement on liquidity provision; the BIS coordinates an emergency standing repo-facility expansion for G10 central banks.
Trade lens —HYG and DM financials (JPM) widen as contagion crosses EM/DM line; GLD pushes to crisis pricing; CHF carries the safe-haven bid alongside USD. · structural · slow
Sub-outcomes coming soon
Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly
Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.