Elevated risk premium baseline

Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• Proxy-conflict cycle, no direct state action

  Iran-backed forces and Israeli / US responses continue in a familiar tempo; no sustained corridor closure; oil-price risk premium fluctuates in a $5-10 band; markets discount events as priced-in.

  Trade lens —LMT and RTX sustain regional air-defense restocking; INR carries persistent import-bill pressure; oil-price band trades in a 5-10 dollar risk-premium range.

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  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.55%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.60%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~15%
  no signals (7d)↓17 vs prior 7dExplore →
• Tightened sanctions on Iranian exports

  Snapback or strengthened enforcement of sanctions on Iranian crude exports reduces grey-market flows; Asia-Pacific buyers seek alternative grades; Brent-Dubai spread widens.

  Trade lens —XOM Permian and Guyana export window widens; Saudi market share in Asia expands; INR loses Iranian discount-crude basis; Brent-Dubai spread widens.

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  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.55%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →
• OPEC+ supply response

  OPEC+ adds barrels to dampen the risk premium and protect market share; price band narrows; integrated-energy margins normalise but volumes lift.

  Trade lens —SLB and Middle-East service activity lift on volume; XOM integrated-margin compresses as spread narrows; UAE spare-capacity monetisation captures the cycle.

  →
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.50%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.55%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly