ELEVATED IMPACT[50% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Elevated risk premium baseline [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[15% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
OPEC+ supply response
OPEC+ adds barrels to dampen the risk premium and protect market share; price band narrows; integrated-energy margins normalise but volumes lift.
Trade lens —SLB and Middle-East service activity lift on volume; XOM integrated-margin compresses as spread narrows; UAE spare-capacity monetisation captures the cycle. · small move · fast
Policy lens —OPEC+ holds an extraordinary ministerial meeting and agrees to a 500 kb/d production increase to dampen the risk premium; the US NSC coordinates with Saudi Arabia via direct diplomatic channels to ensure adequate supply; the IEA updates its oil-market report flagging reduced supply-shortage risk.
⚡ 54 supporting signals (7d)↓47 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
50%
Middle East
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
Elevated risk
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.