Export control escalation

Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• China rare earth embargo

  Beijing restricts gallium, germanium, and graphite exports globally; Western defense and EV supply chains exposed; emergency stockpiling begins.

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  Policy lens —Washington invokes Defense Production Act authorities over gallium and germanium reserves; Brussels activates the EU Critical Raw Materials Act emergency chapter; Canberra and Ottawa fast-track bilateral critical-minerals agreements with G7 partners.

  Trade lens —Rare-earth processors (MP, LAC) re-rate sharply higher; US auto OEMs (GM) compress on EV-magnet supply break; Australian critical-minerals capex pulled forward. · structural · slow

  40%~10% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.35%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.40%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  ⚡ 766 supporting signals (7d)↑164 vs prior 7dExplore →
• China accelerates domestic semis

  Beijing doubles SMIC and Hua Hong investment; targets 28nm self-sufficiency by 2027; allied chip equipment controls further tightened in response.

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  Policy lens —The Commerce Department tightens the Foreign Direct Product Rule to close H20-class loopholes; Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry follows with parallel export controls; Beijing designates semiconductor self-sufficiency a national security priority and accelerates SMIC state-directed investment.

  Trade lens —ASML China revenue gap permanent; chip-equipment makers (KLAC, ONTO) capture parallel-capacity orders; JPY exporters bid on Tokyo Electron strength. · structural · slow

  35%~10% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.35%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.35%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  ⚡ 1083 supporting signals (7d)↑298 vs prior 7dExplore →
• Multilateral controls alignment

  EU, Japan, South Korea, and Netherlands formally align with US export controls; ASML fully restricted; Wassenaar Arrangement updated.

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  Policy lens —Washington, The Hague, Tokyo, Seoul, and Brussels sign a Semiconductor Export Control Alignment accord; the Wassenaar Arrangement is formally amended to cover EUV and advanced-packaging tools; Beijing lodges formal protests at the WTO and UN Security Council.

  Trade lens —ASML reprices on full China-business closure; TSM Arizona gains strategic premium; QCOM China-handset revenue runs to zero. · structural · slow

  25%~5% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.35%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  ⚡ 502 supporting signals (7d)↑141 vs prior 7dExplore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly