HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Export control escalation [35%]→[35% path]

China accelerates domestic semis

Beijing doubles SMIC and Hua Hong investment; targets 28nm self-sufficiency by 2027; allied chip equipment controls further tightened in response.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Export control escalation[35%]×China accelerates domestic[35%]=~8% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~23%

Export control

This Z-path

~8%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Controls prove effective; allies coordinate tighter enforcement 🇯🇵JP· Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical benefit from Western fab orders

Companies

$KLACKLA Corporation· Western fab equipment demand as China builds parallel capacity $ONTOOnto Innovation· Process control orders for non-China capacity buildout

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Billions invested in catch-up that may never reach frontier nodes

Companies

$ASMLASML· China was ~30% of revenue; permanent loss accelerates $NVDANvidia· H20/L20 loophole closed; total China revenue loss

Find live signals →← Back to Export control escalation

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Probabilities are illustrative estimates — multiples of 5 to avoid false precision. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Export control escalation [35%]→[35% path]

China accelerates domestic semis

Beijing doubles SMIC and Hua Hong investment; targets 28nm self-sufficiency by 2027; allied chip equipment controls further tightened in response.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Export control escalation[35%]×China accelerates domestic[35%]=~8% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~23%

Export control

This Z-path

~8%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Controls prove effective; allies coordinate tighter enforcement 🇯🇵JP· Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical benefit from Western fab orders

Companies

$KLACKLA Corporation· Western fab equipment demand as China builds parallel capacity $ONTOOnto Innovation· Process control orders for non-China capacity buildout

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Billions invested in catch-up that may never reach frontier nodes

Companies

$ASMLASML· China was ~30% of revenue; permanent loss accelerates $NVDANvidia· H20/L20 loophole closed; total China revenue loss

Find live signals →← Back to Export control escalation