HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Export control escalation [35%]→[25% path]

Multilateral controls alignment

EU, Japan, South Korea, and Netherlands formally align with US export controls; ASML fully restricted; Wassenaar Arrangement updated.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Export control escalation[35%]×Multilateral controls alignment[25%]=~6% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~23%

Export control

This Z-path

~6%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Allies follow lead; semiconductor moat widens 🇰🇷KR· Samsung and SK Hynix exempt; memory dominance secured

Companies

$INTCIntel· Only allied-country foundry capable of advanced logic at scale $TSMTSMC· Arizona fabs gain strategic importance as allied-only supply

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Full allied blockade of frontier semiconductor access

Companies

$ASMLASML· China business fully closed; 30%+ revenue evaporates $QCOMQualcomm· China smartphone market inaccessible; licensing revenue collapses

Find live signals →← Back to Export control escalation

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Probabilities are illustrative estimates — multiples of 5 to avoid false precision. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Export control escalation [35%]→[25% path]

Multilateral controls alignment

EU, Japan, South Korea, and Netherlands formally align with US export controls; ASML fully restricted; Wassenaar Arrangement updated.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Export control escalation[35%]×Multilateral controls alignment[25%]=~6% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~23%

Export control

This Z-path

~6%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Allies follow lead; semiconductor moat widens 🇰🇷KR· Samsung and SK Hynix exempt; memory dominance secured

Companies

$INTCIntel· Only allied-country foundry capable of advanced logic at scale $TSMTSMC· Arizona fabs gain strategic importance as allied-only supply

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Full allied blockade of frontier semiconductor access

Companies

$ASMLASML· China business fully closed; 30%+ revenue evaporates $QCOMQualcomm· China smartphone market inaccessible; licensing revenue collapses

Find live signals →← Back to Export control escalation