Beijing abandons property sector rescue; redirects fiscal stimulus to EV, solar, and industrial exports; global goods deflation intensifies; trade war escalates.
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.
▲ Missed gains if not positioned
▼ Realized losses if not hedged
Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.
Policy lens —Washington invokes Section 301 of the Trade Act and opens a formal unfair-trade investigation against Chinese EV and solar exports; the EU activates the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and opens anti-dumping investigations; ASEAN trade ministers convene to coordinate a joint response to Chinese export surges.
Trade lens —US solar (FSLR) and tariff-protected industrials bid; auto OEMs (GM, STLAM) priced into a global EV price war; Mexican peso and Vietnam supply-chain beta lift on diversion. · structural · slow
Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring
If this path occurs — possible outcomes
Outcome % = conditional on this path occurring · Path % = joint probability of this exact chain from today
Policy lens —G20 trade ministers convene an emergency session on Chinese overcapacity and issue a communiqué calling for WTO anti-dumping consultations; the US USTR files a formal WTO panel request; the ECB flags below-target inflation risk and adopts a more dovish bias in its forward guidance.
Trade lens —AMZN gross margins expand on Chinese-import deflation; GM and STLAM compress in EV price war; central banks repriced into earlier cuts. · structural · slow
Policy lens —USTR invokes Section 301 and imposes a full tariff schedule on Chinese goods; the EU activates the Anti-Coercion Instrument in parallel; Beijing designates US semiconductor and pharmaceutical companies under its Unreliable Entity List and files a WTO dispute.
Trade lens —FSLR and INTC bid on tariff protection; AAPL and European auto OEMs carry China-retaliation exposure; Mexican peso and Vietnam FDI capture diversion premium. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —India and Vietnam negotiate bilateral trade agreements with the EU to formalise preferential access for goods using low-cost Chinese inputs; the WTO Dispute Settlement Body opens consultations on Chinese export subsidies; the Asian Development Bank issues a regional industrial-competitiveness assessment.
Trade lens —Infosys (INFY) and EWZ catch an EM rerating; TSM compresses on China self-sufficiency push; KRW intermediate-goods exporters lose share to Chinese dumping. · structural · slow
Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly