HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Export-led stimulus pivot [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[20% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
EMs benefit from cheap Chinese inputs
Emerging markets gain competitive advantage from cheap Chinese industrial inputs; manufacturing investment flows to EM instead of China.
Trade lens —Infosys (INFY) and EWZ catch an EM rerating; TSM compresses on China self-sufficiency push; KRW intermediate-goods exporters lose share to Chinese dumping. · structural · slow
Policy lens —India and Vietnam negotiate bilateral trade agreements with the EU to formalise preferential access for goods using low-cost Chinese inputs; the WTO Dispute Settlement Body opens consultations on Chinese export subsidies; the Asian Development Bank issues a regional industrial-competitiveness assessment.
⚡ 3474 supporting signals (7d)↑3474 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Export-led stimulus
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.