HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Export-led stimulus pivot [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[45% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
China export deflation hits global prices
Chinese goods flood global markets at 20-40% below prevailing prices; global CPI falls; central banks forced into unexpected cuts.
Trade lens —AMZN gross margins expand on Chinese-import deflation; GM and STLAM compress in EV price war; central banks repriced into earlier cuts. · structural · slow
Policy lens —G20 trade ministers convene an emergency session on Chinese overcapacity and issue a communiqué calling for WTO anti-dumping consultations; the US USTR files a formal WTO panel request; the ECB flags below-target inflation risk and adopts a more dovish bias in its forward guidance.
⚡ 1232 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Export-led stimulus
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.