Diplomatic de-escalation

Outcomes below — each % shown is the overall probability of that full chain occurring

• Full normalization + tech cooperation

  Comprehensive confidence-building agreement; US-China semiconductor working group formed; some export controls rolled back.

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  Policy lens —Washington and Beijing establish a joint US-China Semiconductor Working Group with authority to recommend export-control exemptions; allied capitals express cautious support but retain independent review rights over their own controls.

  Trade lens —NVDA China-channel revenue restored; TSM multiple expansion peaks; LMT Pacific-deterrence backlog defers; rare-earth names compress. · meaningful · fast

  30%~5% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.30%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)↓1925 vs prior 7dExplore →
• Partial thaw, tensions remain

  Limited measures implemented; hotline established; export controls partially eased on legacy nodes only; structural decoupling continues.

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  Policy lens —Washington eases legacy-node licensing (28nm and older) as a goodwill measure while preserving advanced-node controls; Beijing agrees to refrain from new rare-earth export quotas for 12 months; allied capitals hold their controls in place pending further progress.

  Trade lens —TSM and NVDA catch a moderate re-rate on tail-risk relief; ASML China gap stays open; Arizona-fab thesis intact at lower urgency. · small move · fast

  50%~10% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.50%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
  ⚡ 473 supporting signals (7d)Explore →
• Talks collapse, tensions return

  Diplomatic progress unravels after domestic political pressure on both sides; military exercises resume; markets reprice risk.

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  Policy lens —PLA Eastern Theater resumes median-line crossing operations; Washington re-authorises enhanced Patriot deployments to Japan and Taiwan; allied foreign ministers convene an emergency session and reimpose suspended export-control actions.

  Trade lens —TSM repriced lower on renewed uncertainty; defense names (LMT) catch a fresh procurement bid; gold (GLD) picks up the volatility hedge. · meaningful · fast

  20%~5% joint→
  Scenario?Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.65%×Branch?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%×Outcome?Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.20%=Path?Joint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%
  no signals (7d)Explore →

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly