HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Diplomatic de-escalation [25%]→[50% path]

Partial thaw, tensions remain

Limited measures implemented; hotline established; export controls partially eased on legacy nodes only; structural decoupling continues.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Diplomatic de-escalation[25%]×Partial thaw, tensions[50%]=~8% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~16%

Diplomatic de-escalation

This Z-path

~8%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇹🇼TW· Some risk premium relief; markets stabilize

Companies

$TSMTSMC· Moderate re-rating on reduced tail risk; Arizona fabs continue $NVDANvidia· H20-class chips permitted for China; partial revenue restoration

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Frontier chip access still blocked; structural disadvantage persists

Companies

$ASMLASML· EUV restriction stays; China revenue gap permanent

Find live signals →← Back to Diplomatic de-escalation

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Probabilities are illustrative estimates — multiples of 5 to avoid false precision. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Diplomatic de-escalation [25%]→[50% path]

Partial thaw, tensions remain

Limited measures implemented; hotline established; export controls partially eased on legacy nodes only; structural decoupling continues.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Diplomatic de-escalation[25%]×Partial thaw, tensions[50%]=~8% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~16%

Diplomatic de-escalation

This Z-path

~8%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇹🇼TW· Some risk premium relief; markets stabilize

Companies

$TSMTSMC· Moderate re-rating on reduced tail risk; Arizona fabs continue $NVDANvidia· H20-class chips permitted for China; partial revenue restoration

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Frontier chip access still blocked; structural disadvantage persists

Companies

$ASMLASML· EUV restriction stays; China revenue gap permanent

Find live signals →← Back to Diplomatic de-escalation