HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Diplomatic de-escalation [25%]→[20% path]

Talks collapse, tensions return

Diplomatic progress unravels after domestic political pressure on both sides; military exercises resume; markets reprice risk.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Diplomatic de-escalation[25%]×Talks collapse, tensions[20%]=~3% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~16%

Diplomatic de-escalation

This Z-path

~3%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Defense spending justified again; CHIPS emergency funding renewed

Companies

$LMTLockheed Martin· Pacific deterrence re-authorization $INTCIntel· Domestic foundry strategic case restored

Losers

Countries

🇹🇼TW· Risk premium re-expands; equity selloff 🇨🇳CN· Sanctions maintained; market sentiment deteriorates

Companies

$TSMTSMC· Valuation re-rates down on renewed uncertainty $AAPLApple· Supply chain uncertainty returns; China consumer sentiment risk

Find live signals →← Back to Diplomatic de-escalation

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Probabilities are illustrative estimates — multiples of 5 to avoid false precision. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Diplomatic de-escalation [25%]→[20% path]

Talks collapse, tensions return

Diplomatic progress unravels after domestic political pressure on both sides; military exercises resume; markets reprice risk.

Taiwan Strait Tension…[65%]×Diplomatic de-escalation[25%]×Talks collapse, tensions[20%]=~3% overall

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~16%

Diplomatic de-escalation

This Z-path

~3%

overall probability

If this Z-path occurs — market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Defense spending justified again; CHIPS emergency funding renewed

Companies

$LMTLockheed Martin· Pacific deterrence re-authorization $INTCIntel· Domestic foundry strategic case restored

Losers

Countries

🇹🇼TW· Risk premium re-expands; equity selloff 🇨🇳CN· Sanctions maintained; market sentiment deteriorates

Companies

$TSMTSMC· Valuation re-rates down on renewed uncertainty $AAPLApple· Supply chain uncertainty returns; China consumer sentiment risk

Find live signals →← Back to Diplomatic de-escalation