HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Diplomatic de-escalation [25%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[20% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Talks collapse, tensions return
Diplomatic progress unravels after domestic political pressure on both sides; military exercises resume; markets reprice risk.
Trade lens —TSM repriced lower on renewed uncertainty; defense names (LMT) catch a fresh procurement bid; gold (GLD) picks up the volatility hedge. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —PLA Eastern Theater resumes median-line crossing operations; Washington re-authorises enhanced Patriot deployments to Japan and Taiwan; allied foreign ministers convene an emergency session and reimpose suspended export-control actions.
⚡ 5720 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
65%
Taiwan Strait
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~15%
Diplomatic de-escalation
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.