HIGH IMPACT[35% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Kinetic retaliation escalation[15% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Kinetic retaliation escalation
Attribution lands on a state actor; US or allied government undertakes a proportional kinetic response under existing self-defence framings; markets enter sustained crisis mode for several weeks; volatility indices break out.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
ScenarioAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.35%×BranchConditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.15%=PathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~5%