Probability-weighted branching outcomes of major geopolitical events. Click any scenario to see the full decision tree — winners, losers, and signals at every branch.
Ongoing · Technology / Energy
Ongoing · Maritime / Trade
Ongoing · Military / Geopolitical
Ongoing · Credit / Real Estate
Watching · Monetary Policy
Watching · Energy / Geopolitical
Methodology. Each scenario branches into conditional paths (Y) and sub-outcomes (Z). Percentages shown on paths are joint probabilities — the overall likelihood of that full chain occurring. These are analytical frames, not forecasts.