Prediction Markets

US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER declaration directly captures the recession component of stagflation, a core trigger for fed-policy-reversal.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (recession criterion) directly triggers the deep-recession cascade and activates fed-policy-reversal scenario with quantitative easing and unemployment effects.

AI industry downturn triggered by capex overbuild and bubble dynamics. Market explicitly tracks multiple failure signals including NVIDIA stock impact, data center demand collapse, and major AI company distress within 90

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession indicators (negative GDP growth, rising unemployment) prompt Federal Reserve rate cuts as core policy response.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

China commences military offensive against Taiwan. Directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions, PLA military exercises, and collapse of diplomatic talks that prevent armed conflict.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

Frontier model capability milestone directly measures AI model performance advancement on standardized benchmark, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly signals escalation within the partial-thaw scenario; covers missile strikes, artillery, or armed clashes that would confirm tension threshold breach.

SOTA AI model achieving 90%+ on FrontierMath Benchmark directly measures frontier model capability advancement through compute-intensive training, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure the degree of rerouting around Cape of Good Hope. H1 2026 threshold of 2k+ transits indicates whether shipping has normalized or remains disrupted by Red Sea se

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly reflects gas-cutoff dynamics and Russian energy leverage over EU. Market resolves on commercial gas deliveries to Germany/EU members, core trigger for energy-crisis political frac

US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Federal Reserve executes 12 or more rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring the orderly cut cycle scenario triggered by fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.

AI model performance threshold on Chatbot Arena tracks frontier model competition, measures capability progression central to infrastructure-driven race.

Federal funds rate target of 2.0% at end of 2026 represents a potential endpoint for an orderly rate-cut sequence. The specific level indicates the degree of monetary policy accommodation achieved over the cycle.

Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.

Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure and GPU supply chain directly determines whether it achieves largest-company-by-market-cap status. Monopoly deepening in CUDA/data-center chips underpins valuation.

Chinese AI model achieving top leaderboard ranking directly demonstrates China's capacity to develop competitive AI infrastructure without reliance on Western platforms or regulatory frameworks.

Data center infrastructure regulation directly constrains compute capacity available for frontier model training and deployment.

U.S. federal AI safety bill with specific provisions on model creation, training restrictions, and safety standards directly addresses regulatory formalization of voluntary AI safety practices into binding law.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the escalation cycle on the Korean Peninsula, with invasion as the culminating provocation event.

Eurozone GDP growth between 1.0–2.0% in 2026 signals demand destruction and deflationary pressure from energy crisis impact on industrial output and consumption.

US military strikes on Iranian territory directly trigger regime survival assessment, core outcome of Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz escalation scenario involving potential retaliation chain.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi

China GDP growth below 1.0% in 2026, capturing the slow-growth scenario central to Japan-style recovery branch within property-crisis context.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

Israel airstrikes on Yemen directly trigger coalition military escalation in Red Sea region. Market resolves on aerial strikes against Yemeni territory, core action signaling swift coalition response to Houthi threats.

North Korea military offensive against South Korea directly correlates with peninsula escalation scenario; ICBM capability demonstrates strike readiness that would accompany invasion planning.

Israel conducting airstrikes on Yemen directly reflects military escalation in the Red Sea theater. Resolution hinges on Israeli strike initiation, a core component of coalition response to Houthi activities in the regio

Federal funds rate at 2.0% by end-2026 indicates significant cumulative cuts from current levels; consistent with aggressive Fed response to recession scenario.

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct diplomatic/military threshold that would follow attribution of a state-sponsored cyber act of war and kinetic retaliation, triggering collective defense obligations.

Eurozone GDP contraction directly signals demand destruction. Negative annual growth in 2026 indicates recession conditions consistent with energy crisis deflationary cascade.