Prediction Markets

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.

AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events including NVIDIA performance decline, directly matching capex-cycle overshoot and crash scenario with GPU/data center overbuild resolution criteria.

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 represents severe inflation resurgence that would necessitate Federal Reserve policy reversal from recent easing cycles.

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 directly signals inflation resurgence and would trigger Fed policy reversal toward tightening.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly resolve on the pause-versus-cut decision. A policy reversal toward pause means zero cuts; this market explicitly measures that scenario.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers rate cuts; recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is the primary economic shock driving Fed policy reversal from tightening to easing.

Frontier AI model achieving 90% on FrontierMath directly measures SOTA model capability advancement, a core metric tracking the frontier model race and compute/AI development trajectory.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

Federal Reserve executes no rate cuts during 2026, directly measuring the absence of an orderly cutting cycle and potential policy reversal if inflation remains elevated.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

US recession resolution via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 directly captures the recession phase that would trigger mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces triggers market resolution. Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises directly precede or coincide with talks collapse scenarios.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggers escalation within the partial-thaw scenario. Defined as use of force including missile strikes or artillery fire between November 2025 and December 202

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly determine whether an orderly cut cycle materializes; measures the primary trigger of scheduled and emergency cuts.

China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.

Federal Reserve rate hike decision in 2026 directly triggers sticky-inflation-policy-pivot scenario. A hike reversal contradicts the pivot signal; rate hikes persist under inflationary pressure.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the cut-cycle scenario; resolves when scheduled or emergency cuts occur, confirming pause-then-resume pattern.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, within the range of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026 indicates sustained inflation resurgence requiring Federal Reserve policy adjustment and rate hikes.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

CPI inflation above 5% in 2026 validates the sticky-inflation premise. Persistent high inflation forces Fed to maintain or raise rates rather than pivot toward cuts.

10-year Treasury yield movements directly reflect Fed policy stance and bond-market repricing. Yield dips below 3.9% signal either aggressive Fed easing or flight-to-quality demand, core dynamics of policy reversal.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly triggers EU-Russia energy rapprochement. Commercial gas flows to EU members would signal normalized energy relations and backroom deal execution between Russia and European partne

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct kinetic escalation trigger. Critical infrastructure cyber attack attributed to a state actor could provoke Article 5 if targeting a NATO member, establishing the retaliation cycle

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 would signal a wage-price spiral where wage growth and labor cost pressures drive sustained price increases beyond Fed tolerance, potentially forcing policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

At least one Fed rate cut in 2026 is the expected policy response to recession and rising unemployment; confirms the reversal scenario as cuts materialize.

Nord Stream pipeline reactivation directly resolves whether Russian gas flows to EU members, the core trigger for energy independence from Russian supply constraints.

US recession by end of 2026 represents the recessionary leg of stagflation. A Fed policy reversal attempting to combat inflation while growth slows would increase recession probability.

Kim Jong Un's removal as Supreme Leader would directly signal regime instability and potential escalation cycle disruption on the Korean Peninsula.

Resolves on exactly 8 Fed rate cuts in 2026. A pause or reversal in policy typically manifests as a specific cumulative cut count over the year.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027. EU-Russia backroom deal on energy would likely require broader Ukraine settlement; peace framework removes major obstacle to normalized EU-Russia energy negotiations.

Federal Reserve will execute 11 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing an aggressive orderly cutting cycle in response to inflation moderation.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly resolves on Russian gas flows to EU. A full-cutoff political fracture scenario involving gas cutoffs and Hungary would necessarily entail whether pipelines reopen as a key fractur