Prediction Markets

The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.

US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.

US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.

China reinstate export restrictions on gallium directly matches the rare-earth-embargo branch trigger. Gallium is a critical confirmatory signal term for strategic material export controls.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz determines corridor access and tanker transit risk. Geopolitical control directly shapes insurance costs, naval presence, and oil shipment viability through the Persian Gulf chokepoint.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects tanker corridor stress recovery. Tanker incidents, mining of shipping lanes, and naval activity would delay or prevent this normalization.

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreasing before 2028 directly triggers the hyperscaler-capex-slashed branch. Encompasses Microsoft, Meta, and GPU infrastructure investment cycles.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly indicates resolution of tanker corridor stress; tanker throughput is primary indicator of corridor functionality post-incident.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly tests whether European regulatory framework creates divergence in compliance costs and operational constraints versus U.S. approach to AI infrastructure gove

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct physical manifestation of Red Sea escalation and Iranian regional tension. Market tracks return to normal operations, a key resolution indicator for regional conflict de-es

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Fed policy reversal triggers rate cuts at FOMC meetings. July 2026 rate-cut decision directly reflects whether Fed pivoted from hiking stance to accommodative stance in response to sticky inflation.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of sustained corridor closure. If closure persists, traffic remains disrupted; if corridor reopens, traffic returns to normal.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return by September end measures tanker corridor recovery; extended timeline captures sustained stress from naval or mining-related disruptions.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly indicates closure resolution. Sustained corridor closure would prevent normal traffic return by the August 15 deadline.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly materializes regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and compliance obligations.

2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity directly determines likelihood of Gulf of Mexico refinery disruptions and coastal supply-chain impacts from storm surge and wind damage.

Brent crude price directly reflects oil-corridor risk premium. Strait of Hormuz disruption transmits immediately to crude valuations as a core determinant of global supply expectations.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by August 15 directly reflects resolution of the oil corridor disruption; shipping flow restoration signals de-escalation of war risk and return to baseline insurance premiums.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and pace of an orderly easing cycle; core measure of cycle implementation.

Net count of Fed rate cuts in 2026 captures the magnitude and timing of cut-cycle dynamics; core to assessing pause duration and resumption.

Counts total Fed rate cuts in 2026, capturing the magnitude of the pause-cycle cut phase. Core measure of whether rate-cut reversal occurs and by how much.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Fed rate cuts at July 2026 FOMC meeting signal policy reversal from prior rate hikes. This outcome depends on inflation trajectory and Powell's reassessment of price pressures.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of September serves as inverse indicator of sustained closure. Prolonged disruption prevents traffic restoration within timeframe.

Measures Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery during Trump presidency, directly tied to Iranian actions and regional escalation dynamics that affect chokepoint traffic flows.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly quantifies orderly easing cycle depth; alternative measure to net cuts of the same policy reversal.

Russia's data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) represents major compute infrastructure deployment in the frontier model race.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2027. Core market measuring the exact capex-cycle reversal dynamic; overbuild correction manifests as spending reduction across major data center operators.

ASML Cymer export controls directly trigger allied semiconductor equipment restrictions. Taiwan Strait tensions drive US policy tightening on advanced chip manufacturing tools supplied by Netherlands-based ASML.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of August measures core corridor functionality and shipping risk recovery timeline.

China restricting open release of frontier AI models above capability threshold directly reflects regulatory vacuum-filling in AI deployment and model governance across emerging markets.

Chinese export restrictions on rare-earth magnets (neodymium, dysprosium, samarium) trigger 20% price surge by September 2026. Directly measures rare-earth embargo impact via confirmatory signal term.

China invasion of Taiwan represents the ultimate manifestation of Taiwan Strait military tensions and failed diplomatic engagement that precedes talks collapse.

Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening near-monopoly in GPU and data center AI infrastructure.

Government mandate restricting access to OpenAI models on security or safety grounds directly instantiates the regulatory cascade trigger. AI safety incident prompts coordinated regulatory response across jurisdictions.

USMCA renegotiation or bilateral replacement between US and Mexico directly addresses tariff policy restructuring and fiscal impact on Mexico under potential trade agreement changes.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

AI bubble pop in 2026 resolves on sustained downturn in AI sector valuations and investment, consistent with capex overshoot dynamics and GPU market correction.

AI bubble pop by 2028 directly reflects capex cycle crash scenario where infrastructure overinvestment unwinds and GPU demand collapses.

China's export controls on silicon metal directly signal escalation in semiconductor supply-chain decoupling during Taiwan Strait tensions, matching the branch trigger for tech-sector export restrictions.

USMCA renegotiation or replacement directly signals US-Mexico bilateral friction over trade terms, tariffs, and sectoral disputes that underpin sustained fiscal stress.

Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in 2026 is the core policy reversal mechanism; explicit measure of Fed tightening cycle triggered by inflation persistence.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly signal the monetary policy accommodation enabling a soft landing by supporting employment and growth while containing inflation.

Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery by August extends the measurement window for the same core trigger: tanker passage resumption following Iranian closure threat.

China's AI chip sector advancing represents the core alternative-accelerator scenario, directly competing with incumbent Nvidia/AMD dominance through indigenous chip development (Huawei Ascend, Sophon alternatives to GPU

Bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in Russo-Ukraine conflict directly maps to Korean Peninsula de-escalation scenario, both measuring diplomatic resolution of major regional military standoffs.

US recession occurrence in 2026 is the core signal for fed-policy-reversal scenario activation and deep-recession branch classification.

China's AI chip sector advancement directly enables domestic AI infrastructure deployment and reduces reliance on Western chips, core mechanism for filling regulatory vacuum in emerging markets.

Sabotage-driven power outage in a U.S. megacity directly matches the critical infrastructure cyber attack scenario; resolves on multi-week outage trigger with potential NERC CIP regulatory fallout and insurance implicati

Top AI Model 2026 ranking via Epoch Capabilities Index tracks which frontier model leads the race, directly measuring the competitive hierarchy of AI infrastructure and model development.

Military intervention to reopen the Strait triggers tanker corridor stress through naval conflict, mine-clearing operations, and war risk insurance escalation during ongoing hostilities.