Prediction Markets

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.

Federal Reserve executes no rate cuts during 2026, directly measuring the absence of an orderly cutting cycle and potential policy reversal if inflation remains elevated.

Frontier AI model achieving 90% on FrontierMath directly measures SOTA model capability advancement, a core metric tracking the frontier model race and compute/AI development trajectory.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces triggers market resolution. Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises directly precede or coincide with talks collapse scenarios.

Federal Reserve rate hike decision in 2026 directly triggers sticky-inflation-policy-pivot scenario. A hike reversal contradicts the pivot signal; rate hikes persist under inflationary pressure.

China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

US recession resolution via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 directly captures the recession phase that would trigger mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly determine whether an orderly cut cycle materializes; measures the primary trigger of scheduled and emergency cuts.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events including NVIDIA performance decline, directly matching capex-cycle overshoot and crash scenario with GPU/data center overbuild resolution criteria.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly resolve on the pause-versus-cut decision. A policy reversal toward pause means zero cuts; this market explicitly measures that scenario.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the cut-cycle scenario; resolves when scheduled or emergency cuts occur, confirming pause-then-resume pattern.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggers escalation within the partial-thaw scenario. Defined as use of force including missile strikes or artillery fire between November 2025 and December 202

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 represents severe inflation resurgence that would necessitate Federal Reserve policy reversal from recent easing cycles.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers rate cuts; recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is the primary economic shock driving Fed policy reversal from tightening to easing.

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 directly signals inflation resurgence and would trigger Fed policy reversal toward tightening.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, within the range of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026 indicates sustained inflation resurgence requiring Federal Reserve policy adjustment and rate hikes.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

CPI inflation exceeding 10% in 2026 would signal demand-side pressures or supply shocks (oil, commodities, food) persisting despite Fed policy, indicating a policy reversal scenario where tightening failed to contain inf

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly resolves on Russian gas flows to EU. A full-cutoff political fracture scenario involving gas cutoffs and Hungary would necessarily entail whether pipelines reopen as a key fractur

CPI inflation above 5% in 2026 validates the sticky-inflation premise. Persistent high inflation forces Fed to maintain or raise rates rather than pivot toward cuts.

At least one Fed rate cut in 2026 is the expected policy response to recession and rising unemployment; confirms the reversal scenario as cuts materialize.

Kim Jong Un's removal as Supreme Leader would directly signal regime instability and potential escalation cycle disruption on the Korean Peninsula.

Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest-company-by-market-cap status; CUDA ecosystem and GPU monopoly are core drivers of valuation leadership.

AI industry downturn triggered by sustained GPU/chip supply constraints reducing capex spending and hardware availability, directly causing NVIDIA revenue decline and broader AI infrastructure investment pullback.

North Korea military offensive against South Korea would constitute major escalation on Korean Peninsula, likely triggering ICBM test cycles as part of broader conflict preparation or demonstration of deterrent capabilit

The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.

US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.

US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly indicates resolution of tanker corridor stress; tanker throughput is primary indicator of corridor functionality post-incident.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly materializes regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and compliance obligations.

2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity directly determines likelihood of Gulf of Mexico refinery disruptions and coastal supply-chain impacts from storm surge and wind damage.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Brent crude price directly reflects oil-corridor risk premium. Strait of Hormuz disruption transmits immediately to crude valuations as a core determinant of global supply expectations.

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct physical manifestation of Red Sea escalation and Iranian regional tension. Market tracks return to normal operations, a key resolution indicator for regional conflict de-es

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly tests whether European regulatory framework creates divergence in compliance costs and operational constraints versus U.S. approach to AI infrastructure gove

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects tanker corridor stress recovery. Tanker incidents, mining of shipping lanes, and naval activity would delay or prevent this normalization.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return by September end measures tanker corridor recovery; extended timeline captures sustained stress from naval or mining-related disruptions.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz determines corridor access and tanker transit risk. Geopolitical control directly shapes insurance costs, naval presence, and oil shipment viability through the Persian Gulf chokepoint.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of sustained corridor closure. If closure persists, traffic remains disrupted; if corridor reopens, traffic returns to normal.

Fed policy reversal triggers rate cuts at FOMC meetings. July 2026 rate-cut decision directly reflects whether Fed pivoted from hiking stance to accommodative stance in response to sticky inflation.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by August 15 directly reflects resolution of the oil corridor disruption; shipping flow restoration signals de-escalation of war risk and return to baseline insurance premiums.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly indicates closure resolution. Sustained corridor closure would prevent normal traffic return by the August 15 deadline.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.

China reinstate export restrictions on gallium directly matches the rare-earth-embargo branch trigger. Gallium is a critical confirmatory signal term for strategic material export controls.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreasing before 2028 directly triggers the hyperscaler-capex-slashed branch. Encompasses Microsoft, Meta, and GPU infrastructure investment cycles.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Fed rate cuts at July 2026 FOMC meeting signal policy reversal from prior rate hikes. This outcome depends on inflation trajectory and Powell's reassessment of price pressures.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and pace of an orderly easing cycle; core measure of cycle implementation.

Net count of Fed rate cuts in 2026 captures the magnitude and timing of cut-cycle dynamics; core to assessing pause duration and resumption.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Counts total Fed rate cuts in 2026, capturing the magnitude of the pause-cycle cut phase. Core measure of whether rate-cut reversal occurs and by how much.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of September serves as inverse indicator of sustained closure. Prolonged disruption prevents traffic restoration within timeframe.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly quantifies orderly easing cycle depth; alternative measure to net cuts of the same policy reversal.

Measures Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery during Trump presidency, directly tied to Iranian actions and regional escalation dynamics that affect chokepoint traffic flows.

Red Sea/Suez disruptions directly impact global crude supply and pricing. Missile strikes on energy infrastructure would spike oil prices; this market captures the peak crude price outcome in 2026.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly signal the monetary policy accommodation enabling a soft landing by supporting employment and growth while containing inflation.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz determines shipping access and war-risk pricing. This resolves the core geopolitical trigger underlying the elevated risk premium in the oil corridor.

USMCA renegotiation or bilateral replacement between US and Mexico directly addresses tariff policy restructuring and fiscal impact on Mexico under potential trade agreement changes.

USMCA renegotiation or replacement directly signals US-Mexico bilateral friction over trade terms, tariffs, and sectoral disputes that underpin sustained fiscal stress.

Bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in Russo-Ukraine conflict directly maps to Korean Peninsula de-escalation scenario, both measuring diplomatic resolution of major regional military standoffs.

Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in 2026 is the core policy reversal mechanism; explicit measure of Fed tightening cycle triggered by inflation persistence.

China's AI chip sector advancement directly enables domestic AI infrastructure deployment and reduces reliance on Western chips, core mechanism for filling regulatory vacuum in emerging markets.

China restricting open release of frontier AI models above capability threshold directly reflects regulatory vacuum-filling in AI deployment and model governance across emerging markets.

Houthi disruption of Red Sea shipping directly impacts strait transit. Prolonged drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels determine whether shipping normalizes through this critical chokepoint.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of July 2026 reflects resolution of any Iranian blockade or regional maritime disruption affecting tanker passage.

Government mandate restricting access to OpenAI models on security or safety grounds directly instantiates the regulatory cascade trigger. AI safety incident prompts coordinated regulatory response across jurisdictions.