Prediction Markets

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.

AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events including NVIDIA performance decline, directly matching capex-cycle overshoot and crash scenario with GPU/data center overbuild resolution criteria.

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 represents severe inflation resurgence that would necessitate Federal Reserve policy reversal from recent easing cycles.

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 directly signals inflation resurgence and would trigger Fed policy reversal toward tightening.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly resolve on the pause-versus-cut decision. A policy reversal toward pause means zero cuts; this market explicitly measures that scenario.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers rate cuts; recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is the primary economic shock driving Fed policy reversal from tightening to easing.

Frontier AI model achieving 90% on FrontierMath directly measures SOTA model capability advancement, a core metric tracking the frontier model race and compute/AI development trajectory.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

Federal Reserve executes no rate cuts during 2026, directly measuring the absence of an orderly cutting cycle and potential policy reversal if inflation remains elevated.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

US recession resolution via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 directly captures the recession phase that would trigger mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces triggers market resolution. Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises directly precede or coincide with talks collapse scenarios.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggers escalation within the partial-thaw scenario. Defined as use of force including missile strikes or artillery fire between November 2025 and December 202

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly determine whether an orderly cut cycle materializes; measures the primary trigger of scheduled and emergency cuts.

China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.

Federal Reserve rate hike decision in 2026 directly triggers sticky-inflation-policy-pivot scenario. A hike reversal contradicts the pivot signal; rate hikes persist under inflationary pressure.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the cut-cycle scenario; resolves when scheduled or emergency cuts occur, confirming pause-then-resume pattern.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, within the range of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026 indicates sustained inflation resurgence requiring Federal Reserve policy adjustment and rate hikes.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

CPI inflation above 5% in 2026 validates the sticky-inflation premise. Persistent high inflation forces Fed to maintain or raise rates rather than pivot toward cuts.

10-year Treasury yield movements directly reflect Fed policy stance and bond-market repricing. Yield dips below 3.9% signal either aggressive Fed easing or flight-to-quality demand, core dynamics of policy reversal.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly triggers EU-Russia energy rapprochement. Commercial gas flows to EU members would signal normalized energy relations and backroom deal execution between Russia and European partne

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct kinetic escalation trigger. Critical infrastructure cyber attack attributed to a state actor could provoke Article 5 if targeting a NATO member, establishing the retaliation cycle

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 would signal a wage-price spiral where wage growth and labor cost pressures drive sustained price increases beyond Fed tolerance, potentially forcing policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.

US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.

US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.

China reinstate export restrictions on gallium directly matches the rare-earth-embargo branch trigger. Gallium is a critical confirmatory signal term for strategic material export controls.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz determines corridor access and tanker transit risk. Geopolitical control directly shapes insurance costs, naval presence, and oil shipment viability through the Persian Gulf chokepoint.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects tanker corridor stress recovery. Tanker incidents, mining of shipping lanes, and naval activity would delay or prevent this normalization.

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreasing before 2028 directly triggers the hyperscaler-capex-slashed branch. Encompasses Microsoft, Meta, and GPU infrastructure investment cycles.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly indicates resolution of tanker corridor stress; tanker throughput is primary indicator of corridor functionality post-incident.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly tests whether European regulatory framework creates divergence in compliance costs and operational constraints versus U.S. approach to AI infrastructure gove

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct physical manifestation of Red Sea escalation and Iranian regional tension. Market tracks return to normal operations, a key resolution indicator for regional conflict de-es

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Fed policy reversal triggers rate cuts at FOMC meetings. July 2026 rate-cut decision directly reflects whether Fed pivoted from hiking stance to accommodative stance in response to sticky inflation.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of sustained corridor closure. If closure persists, traffic remains disrupted; if corridor reopens, traffic returns to normal.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return by September end measures tanker corridor recovery; extended timeline captures sustained stress from naval or mining-related disruptions.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly indicates closure resolution. Sustained corridor closure would prevent normal traffic return by the August 15 deadline.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly materializes regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and compliance obligations.

2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity directly determines likelihood of Gulf of Mexico refinery disruptions and coastal supply-chain impacts from storm surge and wind damage.

Brent crude price directly reflects oil-corridor risk premium. Strait of Hormuz disruption transmits immediately to crude valuations as a core determinant of global supply expectations.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by August 15 directly reflects resolution of the oil corridor disruption; shipping flow restoration signals de-escalation of war risk and return to baseline insurance premiums.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and pace of an orderly easing cycle; core measure of cycle implementation.

Net count of Fed rate cuts in 2026 captures the magnitude and timing of cut-cycle dynamics; core to assessing pause duration and resumption.

Counts total Fed rate cuts in 2026, capturing the magnitude of the pause-cycle cut phase. Core measure of whether rate-cut reversal occurs and by how much.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Fed rate cuts at July 2026 FOMC meeting signal policy reversal from prior rate hikes. This outcome depends on inflation trajectory and Powell's reassessment of price pressures.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of September serves as inverse indicator of sustained closure. Prolonged disruption prevents traffic restoration within timeframe.

Measures Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery during Trump presidency, directly tied to Iranian actions and regional escalation dynamics that affect chokepoint traffic flows.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly quantifies orderly easing cycle depth; alternative measure to net cuts of the same policy reversal.

Russia's data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) represents major compute infrastructure deployment in the frontier model race.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2027. Core market measuring the exact capex-cycle reversal dynamic; overbuild correction manifests as spending reduction across major data center operators.

ASML Cymer export controls directly trigger allied semiconductor equipment restrictions. Taiwan Strait tensions drive US policy tightening on advanced chip manufacturing tools supplied by Netherlands-based ASML.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of August measures core corridor functionality and shipping risk recovery timeline.

China restricting open release of frontier AI models above capability threshold directly reflects regulatory vacuum-filling in AI deployment and model governance across emerging markets.

Chinese export restrictions on rare-earth magnets (neodymium, dysprosium, samarium) trigger 20% price surge by September 2026. Directly measures rare-earth embargo impact via confirmatory signal term.

China invasion of Taiwan represents the ultimate manifestation of Taiwan Strait military tensions and failed diplomatic engagement that precedes talks collapse.

Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening near-monopoly in GPU and data center AI infrastructure.

Government mandate restricting access to OpenAI models on security or safety grounds directly instantiates the regulatory cascade trigger. AI safety incident prompts coordinated regulatory response across jurisdictions.

USMCA renegotiation or bilateral replacement between US and Mexico directly addresses tariff policy restructuring and fiscal impact on Mexico under potential trade agreement changes.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

AI bubble pop in 2026 resolves on sustained downturn in AI sector valuations and investment, consistent with capex overshoot dynamics and GPU market correction.

AI bubble pop by 2028 directly reflects capex cycle crash scenario where infrastructure overinvestment unwinds and GPU demand collapses.