Prediction Markets

Nvidia's dominance in GPU market and AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest global market cap by year-end 2026.

China military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by end of 2026 directly triggers partial-thaw scenario escalation from tensions to armed conflict.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession announcement directly defines the recession trigger condition for the deep-recession branch.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute 12 or more 25bp rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring an aggressive easing cycle consistent with orderly-cut policy reversal from tightening.

US recession by end of 2026 directly captures the recessionary leg of stagflation; resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, core output metric for fed-policy-reversal scenario.

AI industry downturn triggered by capex overcapacity and GPU overbuild; resolves when three of five conditions (including NVIDIA revenue decline, AI stock drops, funding collapse) occur within 90 days.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Frontier model capability milestone directly measures AI model performance advancement on standardized benchmark, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

SOTA AI model achieving 90%+ on FrontierMath directly measures frontier model capability advancement and compute infrastructure sufficiency to train models of frontier-level sophistication.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.

AI model performance threshold on Chatbot Arena tracks frontier model competition, measures capability progression central to infrastructure-driven race.

Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.

Federal funds rate target of 2.0% at end of 2026 represents a potential endpoint for an orderly rate-cut sequence. The specific level indicates the degree of monetary policy accommodation achieved over the cycle.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. Represents the extreme pause scenario where the Fed halts cuts entirely despite prior easing cycle signals.

Fed policy reversal toward accommodation triggers rate cuts; 5 cuts in 2026 represents moderate easing consistent with soft-landing scenario where inflation moderates and growth remains stable.

Resolves on emergency Fed rate cut before 2027, capturing the policy-reversal scenario where Federal Reserve implements rate cuts in response to economic stress.

U.S. military offensive against Iran would likely trigger sustained Strait of Hormuz closure as Iran responds to invasion; directly connected to branch's core geopolitical catalyst.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.

Data center infrastructure regulation directly constrains compute capacity available for frontier model training and deployment.

U.S. federal AI safety bill with specific provisions on model creation, training restrictions, and safety standards directly addresses regulatory formalization of voluntary AI safety practices into binding law.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly represents escalation cycle on the Korean Peninsula, triggering sustained provocation through armed conflict.

Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Explicitly addresses stagflation before end of 2026, matching the exact scenario name and all confirmatory signal terms: stagflation, inflation, recession, and unemployment dynamics.

Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

When next US recession occurs is the direct trigger. Recession with rising unemployment forces Federal Reserve to cut rates in response to economic deterioration.

Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.

A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.

Major internet outage from undersea cable failure directly aligns with subsea-cable-cascade scenario trigger. Market resolves on the same physical event: cable cut or damage causing widespread connectivity loss.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly tests whether the Act's compliance framework generates regulatory divergence between US and EU AI infrastructure development.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure central bank policy adjustment tied to soft-landing conditions; soft landing typically requires moderate rate reductions to support growth while maintaining labor-market stabili

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measures the magnitude and direction of FOMC policy moves, capturing whether the Fed pauses, resumes, or accelerates easing relative to baseline expectations.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.

China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly instantiates regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and deployment in 2026.

Strait of Hormuz reopening directly measures recovery from Red Sea/regional escalation disruption. Confirms or refutes extent of Strait blockade tied to Iran actions.

AI bubble pop timing directly matches capex-cycle overshoot scenario. Excessive GPU/data center capex accumulation triggers demand destruction and asset correction.

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

China military invasion of Taiwan by end of 2030 directly triggers partial-thaw scenario through geopolitical escalation, US-China tensions, and potential decoupling of semiconductor supply chains.

10-year Treasury yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026 captures potential yield compression or flattening conditions that may accompany shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance.

Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Granular AI bubble timing market captures the precise moment when infrastructure capex overbuilding peaks and reverses into crash phase.

Net number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the breadth of an orderly easing cycle triggered by shifting inflation and monetary policy priorities.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

US recession in 2026 captures the core recession condition. Fed rate cuts in response to recession represent the policy reversal mechanism central to the scenario.

Explicitly forecasts US recession in 2026, directly validating the deep-recession branch trigger within the timeframe.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

US recession in 2026 aligns with the fed-policy-reversal scenario, which assumes recession conditions triggering Fed pivot to easing, QE, and labor market deterioration.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline defines recession formally. Fed policy reversal to rate cuts emerges as a response to this GDP deterioration.

Resolves on commercial traffic reopening at Strait of Hormuz, core outcome of tanker-incident corridor stress mitigation.

Commercial traffic reopening in the Strait of Hormuz before June 10, 2026 indicates whether Iranian closure threats materialize and maritime transit normalizes.

USMCA renegotiation or bilateral replacement directly signals US-Mexico trade friction. Sheinbaum's fiscal stress scenario would intensify bilateral pressure on trade architecture and USMCA terms.

Sabotage-caused power outage in U.S. megacity directly maps to critical infrastructure cyber attack scenario triggering multi-week industrial/grid outage and CISA response.

Federal Reserve policy reversal scenario directly hinges on whether the Fed reverses course and hikes rates in 2026, opposite the recent cutting cycle. This market measures that reversal outcome.

Bitcoin price contingent on Strait of Hormuz closure duration; reflects market sensitivity to oil-corridor disruption and risk-premium dynamics.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

Direct measurement of 2026 AI bubble pop, the core collapse event in capex-cycle-overshoot-crashes scenario where excessive data center buildout and GPU overproduction trigger industry contraction.

Federal AI safety statute or executive order in 2026 directly tests whether industry self-regulation prevails or government mandates replace voluntary standards.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

Bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in Russo-Ukraine conflict directly matches de-escalation and diplomacy signals on a major geopolitical flashpoint analogous to Korean Peninsula tensions.

OECD natural gas electricity production falling below 200TWh signals energy scarcity that would trigger winter demand rationing across EU member states including Germany during supply-constrained periods.

House vote to restrict force-on-Iran authority by June 30 reflects congressional response to Hormuz closure tensions. Legislative action often accompanies or follows military escalation signals in the Middle East.