Prediction Markets

Nvidia's dominance in GPU market and AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest global market cap by year-end 2026.

China military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by end of 2026 directly triggers partial-thaw scenario escalation from tensions to armed conflict.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession announcement directly defines the recession trigger condition for the deep-recession branch.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute 12 or more 25bp rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring an aggressive easing cycle consistent with orderly-cut policy reversal from tightening.

US recession by end of 2026 directly captures the recessionary leg of stagflation; resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, core output metric for fed-policy-reversal scenario.

AI industry downturn triggered by capex overcapacity and GPU overbuild; resolves when three of five conditions (including NVIDIA revenue decline, AI stock drops, funding collapse) occur within 90 days.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Frontier model capability milestone directly measures AI model performance advancement on standardized benchmark, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

SOTA AI model achieving 90%+ on FrontierMath directly measures frontier model capability advancement and compute infrastructure sufficiency to train models of frontier-level sophistication.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.

AI model performance threshold on Chatbot Arena tracks frontier model competition, measures capability progression central to infrastructure-driven race.

Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.

Federal funds rate target of 2.0% at end of 2026 represents a potential endpoint for an orderly rate-cut sequence. The specific level indicates the degree of monetary policy accommodation achieved over the cycle.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. Represents the extreme pause scenario where the Fed halts cuts entirely despite prior easing cycle signals.

Fed policy reversal toward accommodation triggers rate cuts; 5 cuts in 2026 represents moderate easing consistent with soft-landing scenario where inflation moderates and growth remains stable.

Resolves on emergency Fed rate cut before 2027, capturing the policy-reversal scenario where Federal Reserve implements rate cuts in response to economic stress.

U.S. military offensive against Iran would likely trigger sustained Strait of Hormuz closure as Iran responds to invasion; directly connected to branch's core geopolitical catalyst.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.

Data center infrastructure regulation directly constrains compute capacity available for frontier model training and deployment.

U.S. federal AI safety bill with specific provisions on model creation, training restrictions, and safety standards directly addresses regulatory formalization of voluntary AI safety practices into binding law.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly represents escalation cycle on the Korean Peninsula, triggering sustained provocation through armed conflict.

China military offensive against Taiwan directly resolves on PLA aggression in the Taiwan Strait, the core geopolitical trigger for talks collapse and escalated tensions outlined in the scenario.

Category 5 hurricane landfall in US triggers supply disruptions via Gulf of Mexico refinery infrastructure damage and coastal economic shocks.

Eurozone annual GDP growth between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2026 signals demand destruction and deflationary pressure from energy crisis, materially weaker than trend growth.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi

China GDP growth below 1.0% in 2026, capturing the slow-growth scenario central to Japan-style recovery branch within property-crisis context.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

North Korean military offensive against South Korea would represent direct escalation on the peninsula, potentially triggered by or coinciding with ICBM test cycles that demonstrate capability advancement.

Federal funds rate at 2.0% by end-2026 indicates significant cumulative cuts from current levels; consistent with aggressive Fed response to recession scenario.

U.S. imports from China for 2026 directly measure trade volume impacts from tariff escalation. Lower import levels indicate successful tariff enforcement or retaliation-driven trade war dynamics affecting the China-prope

Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers when unemployment rise signals imminent downturn; directly identifies recession onset that co-occurs with elevated inflation in fed-policy-reversal stagflation trap.

Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.

A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.

Major internet outage from undersea cable failure directly aligns with subsea-cable-cascade scenario trigger. Market resolves on the same physical event: cable cut or damage causing widespread connectivity loss.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly tests whether the Act's compliance framework generates regulatory divergence between US and EU AI infrastructure development.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.

China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly instantiates regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and deployment in 2026.

Strait of Hormuz reopening directly measures recovery from Red Sea/regional escalation disruption. Confirms or refutes extent of Strait blockade tied to Iran actions.

10-year Treasury yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026 captures potential yield compression or flattening conditions that may accompany shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance.

Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

US recession in 2026 captures the core recession condition. Fed rate cuts in response to recession represent the policy reversal mechanism central to the scenario.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline defines recession formally. Fed policy reversal to rate cuts emerges as a response to this GDP deterioration.

Resolves on commercial traffic reopening at Strait of Hormuz, core outcome of tanker-incident corridor stress mitigation.

Commercial traffic reopening in the Strait of Hormuz before June 10, 2026 indicates whether Iranian closure threats materialize and maritime transit normalizes.

Sabotage-caused power outage in U.S. megacity directly maps to critical infrastructure cyber attack scenario triggering multi-week industrial/grid outage and CISA response.

Federal Reserve policy reversal scenario directly hinges on whether the Fed reverses course and hikes rates in 2026, opposite the recent cutting cycle. This market measures that reversal outcome.

Bitcoin price contingent on Strait of Hormuz closure duration; reflects market sensitivity to oil-corridor disruption and risk-premium dynamics.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

Federal AI safety statute or executive order in 2026 directly tests whether industry self-regulation prevails or government mandates replace voluntary standards.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

OECD natural gas electricity production falling below 200TWh signals energy scarcity that would trigger winter demand rationing across EU member states including Germany during supply-constrained periods.

US inflation at 3% or above in 2026 directly reflects persistence of price pressures that would trigger Fed policy reversal away from rate cuts toward maintenance or hikes.

Chinese export restrictions on rare-earth magnets (neodymium, dysprosium, samarium) trigger 20% price surge by September 2026. Directly measures rare-earth embargo impact via confirmatory signal term.

Iranian blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz for >48 hours is a direct retaliation measure that materializes the scenario's core mechanism—disruption of oil flows and regional escalation through control of critica

GPU efficiency breakthrough: smaller die size (B100-equivalent) achieving 2x throughput on large model inference directly measures hardware efficiency gains on AI inference workloads.

China's AI chip sector advancement directly enables domestic AI infrastructure deployment and reduces reliance on Western chips, core mechanism for filling regulatory vacuum in emerging markets.

China's AI chip sector advancing represents the core alternative-accelerator scenario, directly competing with incumbent Nvidia/AMD dominance through indigenous chip development (Huawei Ascend, Sophon alternatives to GPU

House vote to restrict force-on-Iran authority by June 30 reflects congressional response to Hormuz closure tensions. Legislative action often accompanies or follows military escalation signals in the Middle East.