Prediction Markets

Nvidia's dominance in GPU market and AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest global market cap by year-end 2026.

China military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by end of 2026 directly triggers partial-thaw scenario escalation from tensions to armed conflict.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession announcement directly defines the recession trigger condition for the deep-recession branch.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute 12 or more 25bp rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring an aggressive easing cycle consistent with orderly-cut policy reversal from tightening.

US recession by end of 2026 directly captures the recessionary leg of stagflation; resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, core output metric for fed-policy-reversal scenario.

AI industry downturn triggered by capex overcapacity and GPU overbuild; resolves when three of five conditions (including NVIDIA revenue decline, AI stock drops, funding collapse) occur within 90 days.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Frontier model capability milestone directly measures AI model performance advancement on standardized benchmark, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

SOTA AI model achieving 90%+ on FrontierMath directly measures frontier model capability advancement and compute infrastructure sufficiency to train models of frontier-level sophistication.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.

AI model performance threshold on Chatbot Arena tracks frontier model competition, measures capability progression central to infrastructure-driven race.

Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.

Federal funds rate target of 2.0% at end of 2026 represents a potential endpoint for an orderly rate-cut sequence. The specific level indicates the degree of monetary policy accommodation achieved over the cycle.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.

Measures US CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026. Key threshold for assessing inflation resurgence magnitude under changed Fed policy.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. Represents the extreme pause scenario where the Fed halts cuts entirely despite prior easing cycle signals.

Fed policy reversal toward accommodation triggers rate cuts; 5 cuts in 2026 represents moderate easing consistent with soft-landing scenario where inflation moderates and growth remains stable.

Resolves on emergency Fed rate cut before 2027, capturing the policy-reversal scenario where Federal Reserve implements rate cuts in response to economic stress.

U.S. military offensive against Iran would likely trigger sustained Strait of Hormuz closure as Iran responds to invasion; directly connected to branch's core geopolitical catalyst.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.

Data center infrastructure regulation directly constrains compute capacity available for frontier model training and deployment.

U.S. federal AI safety bill with specific provisions on model creation, training restrictions, and safety standards directly addresses regulatory formalization of voluntary AI safety practices into binding law.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly represents escalation cycle on the Korean Peninsula, triggering sustained provocation through armed conflict.

China military offensive against Taiwan directly resolves on PLA aggression in the Taiwan Strait, the core geopolitical trigger for talks collapse and escalated tensions outlined in the scenario.

Category 5 hurricane landfall in US triggers supply disruptions via Gulf of Mexico refinery infrastructure damage and coastal economic shocks.

Eurozone annual GDP growth between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2026 signals demand destruction and deflationary pressure from energy crisis, materially weaker than trend growth.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi

China GDP growth below 1.0% in 2026, capturing the slow-growth scenario central to Japan-style recovery branch within property-crisis context.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

North Korean military offensive against South Korea would represent direct escalation on the peninsula, potentially triggered by or coinciding with ICBM test cycles that demonstrate capability advancement.

Federal funds rate at 2.0% by end-2026 indicates significant cumulative cuts from current levels; consistent with aggressive Fed response to recession scenario.

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct diplomatic/military threshold that would follow attribution of a state-sponsored cyber act of war and kinetic retaliation, triggering collective defense obligations.

Federal Reserve will cut rates 10 times in 2026, representing a major shift in monetary stance consistent with orderly unwinding of prior tightening cycles.

Eurozone GDP contraction directly signals demand destruction. Negative annual growth in 2026 indicates recession conditions consistent with energy crisis deflationary cascade.

North Korea military offensive against South Korea would represent severe escalation on the peninsula, directly triggering UN Security Council involvement and potential sanctions expansion, core outcomes of seventh-nucle

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly triggers energy supply normalization between Russia and EU, core mechanism through which backroom deal would resolve energy crisis via restored natural gas flows to member states.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly resolves Russian gas supply to EU, core trigger for energy security and independence from crisis dependency.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces involving use of force would confirm strait tensions escalating beyond rhetoric into kinetic conflict.

Fed policy reversal typically involves lower rate paths, which pushes 10-year Treasury yields down. This market directly measures whether 10Y yields fall below 3.9%, a key outcome of aggressive policy easing.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

Fed rate cut timing through June 2026, core trigger for cut-cycle-pause scenario with fed-policy-reversal.

China's 2026 Y/Y GDP growth ≥9%. A Japan-style slow-recovery scenario implies below-trend growth; weaker-than-consensus China GDP directly tests this thesis.

Stagflation trap scenario combines elevated inflation with recession-driven unemployment. Market directly measures unemployment reaching 10%, a key stagflation indicator reflecting Fed policy reversal consequences.

U.S. military invasion of Iran would represent the ultimate escalation of regional conflict originating from Red Sea tensions, directly triggering the cascade scenario through direct military intervention.

Eight Fed rate cuts in 2026 corresponds to aggressive monetary easing typical of recession-driven policy reversal, matching the scenario's core trigger of Federal Reserve rate cuts responding to economic deterioration.

Mexico fiscal stress may trigger Trump tariff threats under USMCA renegotiation or Section 232/301 authority. Market directly measures tariff increases on a major USMCA partner by June 30, aligning with targeted-tariff-s

Israeli strikes on Yemen would directly escalate the proxy-conflict cycle involving Houthi forces, a key Iran-backed actor in the Middle East oil corridor dispute.

Eight Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents a moderate easing scenario; resolves on the total count of 25bp cuts enacted by the FOMC across all 2026 meetings.

China's 2026 GDP growth between 7.0–8.0% measures moderate expansion consistent with slowing from historical rates. Aligns with conditions under which property-market weakness persists.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents aggressive monetary easing consistent with recession response. This threshold captures substantial policy reversal from tighter 2025 stance.

Negative GDP growth in 2026 operationalizes recession conditions; recovery hinges on return to positive growth following negative quarters.

DLLM achieving top Chatbot Arena ranking indicates frontier model architecture evolution competing in the race for superior AI models, measuring model capability leaderboard dominance.

Tests China GDP growth 1-2% for 2026, consistent with prolonged low-growth trajectory implied by property-sector weakness and deflationary pressures.

US unemployment reaching 7.0% in 2026 quantifies the labor market deterioration that triggers the cascade branch; directly observable confirmation signal.

Resolves on Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting, early indicator of fed-policy-reversal. Establishes whether rate-cut cycle initiates within scenario timeframe.

ByteDance capturing the best AI model position indicates Chinese companies filling gaps in frontier AI development where regulatory divergence enables rapid deployment and iteration.

U.S. imports from China for 2026 directly measure trade volume impacts from tariff escalation. Lower import levels indicate successful tariff enforcement or retaliation-driven trade war dynamics affecting the China-prope

Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers when unemployment rise signals imminent downturn; directly identifies recession onset that co-occurs with elevated inflation in fed-policy-reversal stagflation trap.

Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Bitcoin price contingent on Strait of Hormuz closure duration; reflects market sensitivity to oil-corridor disruption and risk-premium dynamics.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

OECD natural gas electricity production falling below 200TWh signals energy scarcity that would trigger winter demand rationing across EU member states including Germany during supply-constrained periods.

US headline CPI for May 2026 at 3.9% or higher year-over-year reflects consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Federal Reserve policy recalibration.

Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening near-monopoly in GPU and data center AI infrastructure.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of July 2026 reflects resolution of any Iranian blockade or regional maritime disruption affecting tanker passage.

US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 signals labor-market deterioration consistent with stagflation scenario; unemployment spike is key stagflation indicator alongside persistent inflation.

Frontier model supporting 10M+ token context window requires substantial GPU compute and advanced data center infrastructure to process and serve such extended sequences.

US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 indicates labor market weakness characteristic of recession, a primary confirmatory signal that would drive Federal Reserve to cut rates as stabilization measure.

US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 is a core labor-market signal of economic contraction accompanying recession and fed-policy reversal.